AFC South Predictions

Today we take a look at the AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts 12-4

The Indianapolis Colts remain pretty unchanged on the field minus Marvin Harrison. A move which surprised a lot of people but needed to be done. In 2007 and 2008 combined Harrison played in only 20 games and totaled 80 receptions for 883 yards. In 2006 alone he had 95 catches for 1,366 yards so his production is clearly dropping. The biggest change to the Colts however is the remodeled coaching staff. The Colts were forced to find a new offensive coordinator after long time coach Tom Moore retired this offseason. Moore has been the only coordinator Peyton Manning has ever played for in the NFL and many believe Moore has been a big part of Peyton's success. I do not however believe Clyde Christensen stepping in as the new offensive coordinator will have as large of an effect as some people may think. One thing about Peyton is that he calls his own plays. Moore would send in a set of 3 to 4 plays and Peyton would choose which one to run. Plus we all know Peyton is great at reading defenses and calling audibles. So even with a new OC, their primary signal caller remains the same. We do however have to take into account Tony Dungy has retired and this will be the first season under new head coach Jim Caldwell. Caldwell has been with the team since 2002 and many people on the team are fond of him so the transition should be easy. To top it all off let's not forget that this is a team that has not won less than 10 games since 2001. Looks like another division title for the Colts.

2. Tennessee Titans 11-5
The Tennessee Titans finished last season with the best record in the NFL at 13-3. I do not believe they will be able to repeat that performance. The fact remains that Kerry Collins is very reliable at the quarterback position but is not exactly a game changer. The Titans will still have a good team and post a good record however not quite as good as last years. Plus this is a team that lost Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line who had a monstrous season last year. The Titans will still have success in the running game and play good defense. Running back Chris Johnson seems to be a star in the making rushing for 1,228 yards last year in his rookie campaign. I expect decreased performances from the d-line and the qb positions which is why I believe they deserve a 2 game knock compared to last years record.

3. Houston Texans 9-7
The Texans have in my opinion the best WR in the NFL right now and his name is Andre Johnson. And if you disagree let's look at some facts: Last year Johnson led the NFL regular season in both receptions and yards with 115 receptions for 1,575 yards. And johnson did all this with Matt Schaub as his quarterback (and some Sage Rosenfels). The Schaub to Johnson combination will return strong this year to give the Texans a winning season. Look also for increased performance from 2nd year running back and former West Virginia star Steve Slaton who posted 1,282 yards rushing in his rookie year. The Texans offense finished 3rd in the NFL in yards per game last year yet ranked only 17th in points and are looking to improve on that mark this season. Their defense has been steadily improving since the controversial Mario Williams over Reggie Bush pick which all of a sudden looks genius as Williams had 12 sacks last year. Demeco Ryans has been playing great and promises to be an anchor of the defense in his 4th season. Also this team added hard nosed USC linebacker Brian Cushing in the draft with the 15th overall pick. If this defense can step up a bit more and Johnson can continue to play at a high level we may see an even higher win total here.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
The Jaguars last season were a disappointing team as many expected more out of them. I believe a big part of that comes from the expectation that the Jaguars would have a very strong running game with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew. However neither managed to rush for over 1,000 yards and now Fred Taylor is no longer with the team. The Jags lost tackle Khalif Barnes in free agency but were able to pick up a very good tackle prospect in Eugene Monroe through the draft. The team also added long time Rams receiver Torry Holt signing him to a 3 year deal with hopes that he will become a main target for David Garrard. Overall I think how the season goes for the Jaguars is heavily dependent on the way Garrard plays. If he can manage to take more pressure off of Maurice Jones Drew which I believe he can this team may win more games. They must also improve their defense especially the pass defense which allowed 224.1 yards per game and ranked 24th in the league. Overall they will be decent, but not to much better than last year.

AFC West Predictions

1. San Diego Chargers 11-5

This years Chargers team has not made to many big changes from last year. They will however be returning their all-star linebacker Shawne Merriman. Merriman is the leader of that defense and having lost him last year for pretty much the entire season was a big blow to this team. Yet with that injury they were still able to make the playoffs and beat the Colts in Wild Card week before losing to the Steelers the next week. Their offense finished 2nd in the NFL in points per game and look for this defense with the addition of Merriman to improve their 31st overall pass defense from last year by strongly improving the pass rush. Also, it has been reported several times that Ladanian Tomlinson who many thought has been losing a step of 2 showed up this offseason in the bast shape of his life and reports are saying he looks like the LT of old. LT and Darren Sproles should make for a dangerous backfield. With the weakness in this division, the Chargers are pretty much a lock for a playoff spot.

2. Oakland Raiders 7-9

This team could really go either way this year. 7-9 may be a little bit on the higher side of where I think they will be at the end of the year but if they can start winning some of their close games like they have not been in the past then the Raiders could end up in 2nd in the AFC West at 7-9. The scales however could just as easily tip the other way if the Raiders do not find a way to improve on their 31st ranked rush yards allowed per game statistic. This problem has plagued this team over the past few years however Tommy Kelly played surprisingly well up front last year and with a new D-Coordinator things could positively change. Do not look for very much production from their top 2 draft picks this year as  Darrius Heyward-Bey I don't think will develop the hands necessary to catch balls in traffic and Mike Mitchell adjusts to reading pro offenses. The Raiders will however continue to have a strong running game with Justin Fargas, Darren Mcfadden, and Michael Bush. That being said I think the Raiders finish 2nd in the AFC West behind San Diego.

3. Denver Broncos 5-11

This is a team that over the offseason imploded like nobody would believe. First, they fire their long time and super bowl winning head coach Mike Shanahan to bring in Patriots ex offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Then with pro bowl quarterback with a tremendous arm already on the team (Jay Cutler), McDaniels tries to break the bank to bring in Matt Cassel from New England. This turned out to be very bad for McDaniels as Jay Cutler got upset and demanded a trade. I'm not saying that Cutler was right in demanding a trade or that McDaniels was wrong by not putting up with Cutler trying to run the team, I do however think that all around it was a terrible move on the part of McDaniels because they already had a pro-bowl proven QB and now you want to trade for somebody who didn't even make the playoffs with receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker and one of the best O-lines in the game. It just doesn't make sense. And the worst part about this whole situation is they have no defense to fall back on because last year they had one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. It could be a long season for Broncos fans.

4. Kansas City Chiefs 3-13

The Chiefs are in rebuilding mode and as we know for teams in the NFL that process usually takes a few years. They did however draft smart and heavily defensively with hopes to strengthen their defense first. This team did however add Matt Cassel who I do not think will be the savior in KC but is a good looking prospect for their future. The Chiefs brought in Todd Haley the ex Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator from last season, and we all know the success their offense had. So look for the Chiefs to try to throw the ball downfield with some success this year but overall this roster is just to young to make a big impact this year but they are certainly doing good things for the future of Chiefs football.

NFC East Preview

New England Patriots: 13-3

Let's face it, the Patriots with Tom Brady were an unbelievably great team. Barring injuries this team seems poised to easily win the division crown this year. The Patriots offense is full of weapons with Moss, Welker, and surprising Sammy Morris 727 yards this past year.Look also for young defensive help from last years first round pick Jerod Mayo and this years second round picks Patrick Chung and Ron Brace. 

Miami Dolphins: 8-8

I know I may take a lot of heat for this one but let's be REAL here for a minute. The Dolphins last year were a team that nobody saw coming. Surprising everybody with the single wing (Wildcat) formation is not going to happen again this year. Plus they had the benefit of playing 8 games against 2 of the weakest divisions in the NFL in the NFC and AFC west. The Dolphins won't get much help next year from the draft picks as I believe although first round pick Vontae Davis is a great athlete he is not nearly polished enough to start in the NFL. Especially having to face teams with receiving corps like the Patriots, Bills, Falcons, and Panthers. Sorry Fins fans but the NFL will be ready for you this time around.

New York Jets: 7-9

The New York "Bretts" are no more. Both Running Backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are upset with their contracts. Rex Ryan is just another defensive coordinator to become a head coach after being with the very talented Ray Lewis led defense. Marvin Lewis left that spot in 2001 and his Bengal's were 4-11-1 last year. Mike Nolan replaced Lewis and 3 seasons later was hired to the 49ers. Nolan was fired from San Francisco halfway through last year. The fact is this team has no quarterback and is hoping that maybe Sanchez can step in and start a few games this year. However Ryan and Sanchez are not the savior of this franchise, not this year at least.

Buffalo Bills: 7-9

Bringing up the bottom is the Buffalo Bills. Last season quarterback Trent Edwards played well up until he suffered a head injury early in last season. After that his productivity dropped off and eventually led to him being benched over a "questionable" injury after he performed very poorly against the San Francisco 49ers. If Edwards does not produce, Owens will not be a happy camper and things could get interesting. The Bills however do have a strong rush game and will be able to win games on the back of Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch.

The Blog is Back

So I have taken some time off from the blog since the offseason is at its slowest point of the year. But as the season draws nearer I will again be giving updates and articles regularly. Soon I will be breaking down each division and giving my predictions for the 2009 season so stay tuned!

Mike Vick not playing QB?

Consistently I hear media members and so called NFl experts talk bout how if Mike Vick were to return to the NFL it wouldn't be at quarterback. I have to say that makes absolutely no sense. The fact is that the biggest question about Vick playing in the NFL is his physical shape. Will he be able to run and be as strong as it takes to play at the NFL level? For one, I think he will be. We all know that with the exception of special teams, playing quarterback requires the least amount of physical strength and endurance out of any position. So how would Vick be able to play receiver if he weren't even strong enough to play QB? The fact is that the best position for Vick to play is in fact QB and if he does end up reinstated and on a team he will be playing the quarterback position.

What teams might be interested? Well many people are pointing to San Francisco however Coach Mike Singletary has stated that his QB is already on the roster. The Jets already got their QB as did Kansas City. I feel Minnesota will show interest if the Brett Favre thing doesn't work out. Also, Jacksonville is showing that they have a lot of faith in David Garrard. The fact is, this late teams are already going forward with who they have on their roster. So if Vick is to come back, the demand for him may not be as big as originally thought.

Steven's 09 Mock Draft

I'm not a big mock draft guy myself because everybody's boards look different so there's really no knowing of what's going to happen. But, since so many people seem to like them, I figure I'll make my own. I will only do picks 1-12 because after that it's pretty much a complete toss up. These picks are the picks which I feel will happen based on how NFL teams have their boards ranked, NOT how the media ranks them. It is important to note that from the end of the college season to now peoples names have skyrocketed and dropped, not because of their workouts, but rather because their agents do all they can to hype their players up draft boards in hopes to make more money. Inside war-rooms however actual coaches stay almost immune to all these media-reports, so as the media's boards change, their boards do not. Here are my first 12 picks for the 2009 draft.

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia

The Detroit Lions are in desperate need for a lot of positions, however the most important is a franchise quarterback. Stafford is the best quarterback in this draft and has the best possibility of becoming a good professional quarterback. Plus, the Lions have many picks, including another first rounder where they can pick up some o-line help.

2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith, LT Baylor

The Rams dumped their long time anchor at left tackle Orlando Pace to clear way for the best available left tackle in the draft. Luckily Stafford was chosen first overall and they will be able to land a great talent in Jason Smith. I am however a little wary of the fact that Smith never played with his hand on the ground because of the spread system they run at Baylor.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest

Many consider Curry to be the best player in the draft. I must admit I disagree with that as I was very unimpressed with his tapes. However, it seems to be a consensus around the nation that he is a great talent. The Chiefs get a long time starter here with Curry.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech

I consider Crabtree to be the most talented player in this years draft. The Seahawks do have a need at QB, but that need is not immediate and with a chance to land a player like Crabtree, there is no chance they pass him up.

5. Cleveland Browns - Everette Brown, DE Florida State

Brown is an extremely talented pass-rusher. At times he was literally unstoppable. Recently, people have had Brown dropping down draft boards, however make no doubt about it Brown is a top 5 talent. The Browns will add a solid pass rusher to help out their defensive front here.

6. Cincinatti Bengals - Eugene Monroe, LT Virginia

The Bengals can use help protecting palmer and strengthening their run game. Eugene Monroe is the second best tackle in this draft and will be a great addition to the Bengals offensive line.

7. Oakland Raiders - Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri

Al Davis has made it very clear that he will not be taking an o-lineman at this spot, nor will he trade it. With that said, Davis loves to draft players with speed and are in need of a WR. Look for the Raiders to draft Maclin even if Crabtree is still available as I believe MAclin is number 1 on their draft board.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Andre Smith, LT Alabama

After Smith's debacle at the scouting combine, a lot of people dropped him out of the top 10. However, make no mistake about it Andre Smith is an extremely talented LT and gave up only 1 sack last year in the vastly talented SEC. The Jaguars get a talented LT here who is a mauler and can also play RT given his size.

9. Green Bay Packers - Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB Texas

Orakpo is creeping up draft boards everywhere because of his ability to rush the passer. He is often compared to Demarcus Ware of the Dallas Cowboys. Orakpo goes high because of how hard it is to find good pass rushers in this league.

10. San Francisco 49ers - B.J. Raji, DT Boston College

The 49ers are finally able to land a great nose tackle for their 3-4 scheme. Raji has a big body, plays very physical, and will fit in well with the attitude Singletary is instilling in San Francisco. Additionaly, Raji has a great attitude and personality. Raji is impressive in the middle with 42 tackles and 7.5 sacks. Look for Raji to not make a huge impact his first year, but will develop into a great talent as he picks up the pro game.

11. Buffalo Bills - Michael Oher, LT Mississippi

Michael Oher is considered a top 10 draft prospect but I have him falling just outside of that. Here the Bills get a great player in Oher who has a great determination and skill-set. Oher is a great addition to protect the Bills young core so Edwards can get the ball to his dynamic receiving corps. 

12. Denver Broncos - Mark Sanchez, QB USC

There is no doubt that the Broncos need a new quarterback. Look for the 49ers at #10 to attempt to persuade the Broncos that they are interested in Sanchez to get the Broncos to trade up into their spot. At #12, the 49ers would probably be able to get their guy, and the Broncos would get the second rated QB in the draft.

Some Sleepers to Watch

This weekend marks the beginning of the draft process with the NFL scouting combine taking place in Indianapolis. Coverage of the workouts are Saturday-Tuesday, but they will be replayed I am sure all the way up until draft day. Here are a few not to well known names to watch.

1. Ramses Barden, Cal Poly. Projected as a 5th round draft pick has a load of athleticism and talent. Barden is 6 foot 6 inches tall and has excellent ball concentration. Barden can get up in the air and attack the ball at its highest point. This weekend will be very important for him to show his speed and size to the NFL scouts. Barden is playing in a small-school division but just absolutely dominates games. In 2007 against Weber State he had 9 catches for 219 yards and 4 TD's. A month later against Idaho State he had 10 grabs for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. The question for Barden is going to be whether or not he will have the speed to separate from better defenders at the next level. 

2. Jamon Meredith, South Carolina. Jamon Meredith has outstanding speed and talent as a tackle and can down right block people. Meredith is considered a 3rd round pick or later but a team getting him that low could be getting a real steal. Meredith needs to perform this weekend in the benchpress. Scouts know about Meredith's great ability to kick-step and keep up with those fast defensive ends but needs to prove that he can dominate people up front. His bulk is definitely a question weighing in at 6'5"  and 304 punds so he needs to show off his strength this weekend.

3. Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State. Bomar is by far the most talented sleeper pick on my board. Out of high-school, Bomar was highly recruited out of Grand Prairie High School, considered the top QB prospect in the 2004 recruiting class. Bomar went to Oklahoma where he redshirted his first year and in the 2005 season was MVP of the Holiday Bowl where the Sooners defeated the Oregon Ducks. In 2006 Bomar was dismissed from Oklahoma for taking pay for unpaid work at a car dealership which violated NCAA rules. This incident has greatly raised eyebrows about Bomar's character. For Bomar to be considered for a first day daft pick he must have some good explanations as to what happened with that incident. Bomar transferred to Sam Houston State where he had outstanding numbers despite being on a bad team. In 2007 in 9 games Bomar threw for 2209 yards and had a completion percentage of 59.1%, and a QB rating of 130.90. In 2008 Bomar threw for 3355 yards with a completion percentage of 56.2 and a QB rating of 135.30. Bomar needs to make a great impression on scouts in interviews this weekend but if he goes late first day come draft time, some team is getting a steal.